According to a Suffolk University poll released today, Ohio is tied with each candidate garnering 47% support. If you include those voters who are “leaning” towards one candidate or another, the number improves for Romney: 48% to 47.2%. What we may be seeing is that Obama is hitting a ceiling of (ironically) about 47%.
If you factor in the party affiliation as a “weight” in the poll, you also see encouraging signs. Even though the Democrats are ahead on the polling sample (by +4), they’re still tied. What that means is that independents are breaking sharply for Romney.
(Here’s some context: 2008, Democrats has a +8 in voting turnout, and in 2004, Republicans had a +4. Thus, the +4 Democratic advantage in this poll may even be in the high side…and Romney is still ahead.)
This poll is a complete shock, but we’ll take it!