Opinion: Here comes the landslide – The Hill – covering Congress, Politics, Political Campaigns and Capitol Hill | TheHill.com
Michael Barone points out that part of the reason why Romney is gaining ground on Obama is as a result of the voter preference in swing-state suburbs. He’s seeing a patterns similar to the 1980 election:
What we may be seeing, as we drink from the fire hose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow motion 1980. The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points. That suggests that since the Oct. 3 debate Republicans have been consistently more motivated to vote than at least temporarily disheartened Democrats.
Karl Rove outlines diagnoses the state of the campaign. The good news is that Romney’s momentum is building and the Obama campaign is becoming increasingly desperate.
Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics.com average of polls showed Mr. Romney with 48% support to President Barack Obama’s 47.1%. On the eve of the Denver debate, Mr. Romney had 46% and Mr. Obama 49.1%.
More revealing, in the past week’s 40 national surveys, Mr. Romney was at or above 50% in 11, with Mr. Obama at or above 50% in one. Mr. Romney leads 48.9% to 46.7% in an average of these surveys. At this same point in 2004, President George W. Bush led Sen. John Kerry in this composite average, 48.9% to 45.8%…
This race will be close, depending on a few states. The good news for Mr. Romney is that the ones he needs are breaking his way. He leads in most recent polls in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
That puts the former Massachusetts governor at 263 in the Electoral College with Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the great prize, Ohio, still up for grabs. In those states, Mr. Obama has at best a thin edge, while Mr. Romney has momentum, a stronger argument, and time to grab the seven additional electoral votes he needs.
An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.
The Des Moines Register writes about a visit by Mitt Romney. They’re assessment? “This must be what momentum looks like.”
National Review points to an interesting trend within the Obama campaign: talk of the president winning without Ohio. Hmmmm.
According to a Suffolk University poll released today, Ohio is tied with each candidate garnering 47% support. If you include those voters who are “leaning” towards one candidate or another, the number improves for Romney: 48% to 47.2%. What we may be seeing is that Obama is hitting a ceiling of (ironically) about 47%.
If you factor in the party affiliation as a “weight” in the poll, you also see encouraging signs. Even though the Democrats are ahead on the polling sample (by +4), they’re still tied. What that means is that independents are breaking sharply for Romney.
(Here’s some context: 2008, Democrats has a +8 in voting turnout, and in 2004, Republicans had a +4. Thus, the +4 Democratic advantage in this poll may even be in the high side…and Romney is still ahead.)
Keith Backer writes:
Independents’ support for Romney up 7% (up 1% from last month)
GOP is more enthusiastic: 52% to 40%
Men support Romney over Obama is steady at about +7%
Romney has shrunk Obama’s advantage in the women vote from 25% to 15%
Youth vote for Obama has shrunk from +35% for Obama to +15%
Romney has flipped the senior support numbers: Obama was +1%, now Romney is up +7%
The problem with this poll which shows an Obama lead by 5%, is that the spread between the party affiliation is heavily skewed towards the Democrats:
D = 35%
R = 26%
I = 34%
Keith Backer goes onto write:
They threw me off last week when they put out some fairly sampled polls, but here we are right back to last month’s monstrosity of an Ohio poll over-sampling Democrats by 9%, higher than the 8% margin they enjoyed in 2008. Party ID is D+9 (Dem 25, Rep 26, Ind 30) and R+5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25)…This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and also voted to REPEAL Obamacare by a margin of 66 to 34.
A story out of Columbus Ohio reports that the Romney campaign has made vast improvements to take advantage of the early voting option in Ohio. In the last election, John McCain prevailed on the actual Election Day in terms of the in person voting that took place at polling locations. He subsequently lost the state, however, because Barack Obama had taken advantage of the early voting and built up a significant lead. According to the story, it’s not going to be anything like 2008 for the president:
Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the state’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.
“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,” he said. “What’s this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.”
The analysis assumes undeclared voters will be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.
Gov. Mitt Romney is spending far more time campaigning than President Obama, staging 16 campaign rallies and speeches compared to only 9 by Obama so far this month, according to a White House Dossier analysis of their schedules.