Bye Bye North Carolina « Battleground Watch

Bye Bye North Carolina « Battleground Watch.

Early voting shows positive signs for the GOP

(October 4, 2012 – Source: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images North America)

I don’t know how he finds the time (or the information), but Keith Backer from put together another stellar analysis about some of the early positive indications coming in from early voting.  This is echoed by the Washington Post.  Bear in mind, the actual voting isn’t announced until the tally is counted on election night, however, campaigns and political insiders are often able to get a sense of the trajectory of the race by looking at the party affiliation of the people submitting the ballots.  Here’s a clip from the Washington Post’s story:

Among the 29,400 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

It’s a small sample — more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because McCain lost the state’s early vote by 11 percentage points.

“North Carolina was a place that they totally caught us flat-footed in 2008,” Beeson said. “They jumped out to a lead and never looked back. You don’t see that happening this time — Republicans have the lead.”

Florida’s sample is even smaller — only 14,500 votes so far — but it too favors Republicans over Democrats, 53 percent to 32 percent. In 2008, nearly 4.6 million voters in Florida cast ballots before Election Day.

Democrats have a big lead in Iowa — as they did in the past two presidential elections. About 60 percent of the 127,100 voters who have cast absentee ballots so far were registered Democrats. Twenty-two percent were Republicans and 18 percent were unaffiliated, according to the United States Elections Project.

Note that in Iowa, this type of trend is typical.  In 2004, when Bush eventually carried the state, Democrats leaped out of the blocks early as well and built an initial lead before the GOP came back and prevailed on election day.  Iowa is still crucial, however, and Romney is making strides in blunting that advantage.  Check out this link from the Free Republic.