EDITORIAL: Romney’s electoral insurgency

Last week, Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos took criticism for saying Mr. Romney had a lock on Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, worth a collective 57 electoral votes. Today, that is orthodoxy. The New York Times‘ Nate Silver, who still points to an Obama win, has Florida, Virginia and North Carolina in the Romney column as well as Colorado’s nine electoral votes, which many analysts see as beyond Mr. Obama’s reach.

Adding up these states puts Mr. Romney’s base at 257 electoral votes, a mere 13 from victory. This was considered impossible a few weeks ago. From that substantial position, the Republican could win by taking Ohio (18 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20). Even if he lost all three of these large states, he still would end up on top by taking Wisconsin (10) and one other small swing state from among New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6).

via EDITORIAL: Romney’s electoral insurgency – Washington Times.

Ohio shows +5% for Obama? Hmmm…

Obama +5 in Ohio with a Party ID of D +9 — CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac « Battleground Watch.

Keith Backer writes:
Independents’ support for Romney up 7% (up 1% from last month)
GOP is more enthusiastic: 52% to 40%
Men support Romney over Obama is steady at about +7%
Romney has shrunk Obama’s advantage in the women vote from 25% to 15%
Youth vote for Obama has shrunk from +35% for Obama to +15%
Romney has flipped the senior support numbers: Obama was +1%, now Romney is up +7%

The problem with this poll which shows an Obama lead by 5%, is that the spread between the party affiliation is heavily skewed towards the Democrats:
D = 35%
R = 26%
I = 34%

Keith Backer goes onto write:

They threw me off last week when they put out some fairly sampled polls, but here we are right back to last month’s monstrosity of an Ohio poll over-sampling Democrats by 9%, higher than the 8% margin they enjoyed in 2008. Party ID is D+9 (Dem 25, Rep 26, Ind 30) and R+5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25)…This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and also voted to REPEAL Obamacare by a margin of 66 to 34.

Liberal commentator Alan Colmes calls for Eva Longoria’s resignation as co-chair of Obama campaign

Liberal commentator Alan Colmes calls for Eva Longoria’s resignation as co-chair of Obama campaign | Fox News.

 

Time: The electoral map is looking better and better for Gov. Romney

Keith Backer, as usual, nails a good lead from Time magazine’s Mark Halperin.  In it, Mr. Halperin discusses how the campaign is truly shifting and the acceleration of states  like Virginia and Florida towards the Romney camp is scaring Obama supporters (North Carolina isn’t really close.  Obama maintains a presence there only because it’d be embarrassing NOT to have one).

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

This doesn’t mean Romney has the upper hand right now. But it is no longer at all implausible that he could take the three Southern battlegrounds and Ohio. If he does that, he sure as heck would have the upper hand. And that leaves at least some Democrats with the shakes.

This comes hot on the heals of another poll coming out of New Hampshire showing that Obama and Romney are tied at 47% each.  Remember, incumbents are consistently below the 50% mark going into an election, it does not bode well for his reelection changes.  According to an article from the Wall Street Journal posted earlier this month, Karl Rove explains why:

In the past 30 days, there were 91 national polls (including each Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking survey). Mr. Obama was at or above the magic number of 50% in just 20. His average was 47.9%. Mr. Romney’s was 45.5%.

There were 40 national polls over the same period in 2004. President George W. Bush was 50% or higher in 18. His average was 49%; Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was at 43.8%. An Oct. 4, 2004, story in the New York Times declared the Bush/Kerry race “a dead heat” and asked “whether Mr. Bush can regain the advantage.”

Mr. Bush was hitting the vital 50% mark in almost half the polls (unlike Mr. Obama) and had a lead over Mr. Kerry twice as large as the one Mr. Obama now holds over Mr. Romney. So why was the 2004 race “a dead heat” while many commentators today say Mr. Obama is the clear favorite.  The reality is that 2012 is a horse race and will remain so. An incumbent below 50% is in grave danger. On Election Day he’ll usually receive less than his final poll number. That’s because his detractors are more likely to turn out, and undecideds are more resistant to voting for him.

Current polling analysis

In his recent analysis of the campaign polls, Keith backer from the www.battlegroundwatch.com blog provides a very detailed, and informative breakdown of the status of the race.

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I won’t rehash a lot of what he provides in his post, which are always informative, but I will say a few things jumped out to me. First, it appears as though some of the major media outlets are continuing to oversampled Democrats. In a recent poll commissioned by the Washington Post, and ABC news, it shows that Obama was leading Romney by 5 percentage points. This seems strange, given the current trajectory of the daily tracking polls from the Gallup organization, and Rasmussen reports. (In both of those polls, Romney is leading Obama by 2%.). Keith writes:

The party identification in the survey is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 33). This compares to 2008 when party ID was D +7 (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29) and 2004 when party ID split evenly (Dem 37, Rep 37, Ind 26). Making matters even worse, in their poll just over two weeks ago that survey had a party ID of D +3 (Dem 33, Rep 30, Ind 33).

Overall, this would be extremely unusual for Pres. Obama to really have that type of a lead. First, independence throughout all polls (including this one) are showing a distinct lean towards Romney. Also, even Republicans are starting to edge out Democrats in enthusiasm. I highly doubt that ABC News and the Washington Post are purposefully doing this, however, it does show that in the modern era (for whatever reason) polling seems to be sporadic, and inexact.

Washington Times: Obama in trouble

According to a recent column publishes by the Washington Times, data coming out of the swing states is showing an increasingly difficult set of challenges for the President.

What stands out in the article was that Pennsylvania was considered a battleground state. Remember that Romney boldly predicted that they would surprise people in Pennsylvania. If the recent polling out is the state is accursed, then the Obama administration is really in serious trouble. Something tells me that while it may be close, it’s probably a small chance that Gov. Romney can pull out a win there.

But more importantly, there is a bigger issue are play. What does it say that a state that ia typically beyond reach, but is now suddenly in danger?  Certainly, the Romney campaign would probably be smart not to devote a huge amount of resources in the state, but it may force the Administration to invest/divert precious dollars over there.

Quick Iowa Early Vote Metric Watch

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/11/quick-iowa-early-vote-metric-watch/ The very handy website battlegroundwatch.com gives us a little tidbit into the status of the absentee ballots in Iowa. (It is important to remember here, that absentee ballots in Iowa always trend towards Democrats. Thus we are not looking for a margin in favor of Republicans over Democrats, that would be hard to achieve, what we are looking for is a nice narrow gap.) As of right now, the gap is only 67,000 absentee ballot request by Democrats , over Republicans. This is tremendous. About one week ago, it was 90,000 absentee ballots requested. According to his source, if the absentee ballots dip below 60,000, it is almost impossible for Barack Obama to take Iowa. This is becoming exceedingly important, given the fact that Ohio is still up in the air

Obama +3 in Pennsylvania…12% Undecided — Siena Research

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/09/obama-3-in-pennsylvania-12-undecided-siena-research/

Mitt Romney Intensifies Ohio Campaign

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/us/politics/with-new-vigor-mitt-romney-intensifies-ohio-campaign.html?partner=rss&emc=rss No wonder he was trailing in Ohio:

Several Republican officials, asked why Mr. Romney has been lagging well behind Mr. Obama, responded it was not because Mr. Romney was not selling here, but rather that his campaign had not been selling him well. The president’s campaign has overwhelmed Mr. Romney until now in television advertising. In Youngstown, Mr. Romney and his allied groups ran virtually no advertisements through much of September, as Mr. Obama and his Democratic allies showed their ads more than 1,100 times, according to data compiled by the media monitoring firm Kantar Media/CMAG. Mr. Romney has now increased his advertising in smaller markets across the state, including Youngstown, Zanesville and Lima. He is scheduled to travel the state on Tuesday and Wednesday with Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey at his side, hoping to keep enthusiasm high among Republicans who have been showing up in greater numbers at volunteer centers across the state this week.

First Debate: Obama’s “emperor has no clothes” moment

Joe Scarborough and the gang from “Morning Joe” discussed the debate.

“More than polls, because polls do move around; I’m interested in the people that come up to me in the street and my Democratic friends and what they’re saying to me. And I won’t say that there is a sense of panic, but there has been a real emperor has no clothes moment over the past week and it keeps growing by the day. That’s why I’m bringing this up. I know that everyone that’s watching is hearing this in their own hometowns as well, it’s stunning now,” Joe Scarborough said on the Monday broadcast of his MSNBC show “Morning Joe.”