Opinion: Here comes the landslide – The Hill – covering Congress, Politics, Political Campaigns and Capitol Hill | TheHill.com
James Pethokoukis writes that Mitt Romney may be cruising to a “decisive victory” on Election Day. Fox News also has had a few videos of the latest take on the race out of Ohio.
The Weekly Standard is predicting a Romney victory of 52 to 47%.
Politico reports how white voters, a demographic not as emphasized in prior election cycles, could prove to be pivotal this November.
If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, part of the lesson of 2012 will be that white voters still matter.
The polling couldn’t be clearer or more polarizing: A POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll has Romney ahead of President Barack Obama among white voters by 18 points, 57 percent to 39 percent. Gallup showed Romney ahead among whites by 20-plus points this month.
Jennifer Rubin discusses how the impact of the recent economic numbers should continue to assist Romney’s rise:
The third-quarter gross domestic numbers were released, showing a measly growth rate of 2 percent. The Associated Press noted, “Since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009 the U.S. economy has grown at the slowest rate of any recovery in the Post-WWII period.” Not surprisingly, the Romney camp pounced, putting out a statement pointing out that this was less than half the growth rate predicted by the Obama team (4.3 percent). “Slow economic growth means slow job growth and declining take-home pay,” Mitt Romney declared. He is right in that regard, and multiple economic gurus made the point that with this growth rate we’ll be looking at sky-high unemployment for the foreseeable future.
The timing could not have been better for the Romney camp as its candidate prepared to deliver an economic speech in Iowa. His central argument was, according to released excerpts: “We have had four presidential and vice-presidential debates. And there is nothing in what the President proposed or defended that has any prospect of meeting the challenges of the times. Raising taxes will not grow jobs or ignite the economy — in fact, his tax plan has been calculated to destroy 700,000 jobs. A new stimulus, three years after the recession officially ended, may spare government, but it will not stimulate the private sector any better than did the stimulus of four years ago. And cutting one trillion dollars from the military will kill jobs and devastate our national defense. This is not the time to double down on the trickle-down government policies that have failed us; it is time for new, bold changes that measure up to the moment, that can bring America’s families the certainty that the future will be better than the past.”
The Weekly Standard has an interesting write-up about how this election, and Obama’s desperation, is similar to the 1992 race:
Any veteran of the ’92 presidential campaign has learned to identify marks of intellectual exhaustion. The déjà vu this year is especially creepy. President Bush went to a Waffle House to illustrate Bill Clinton’s “waffling” on the issues. He took to calling Al Gore “Ozone Man,” and surrogates warned darkly of Clinton’s unexamined past, just as the president today dwells on Big Bird and “Romnesia,” and his surrogates raise half-baked questions about foreign bank accounts. Both presidents are dignified men, yet their campaigns have felt compelled to abase themselves in the same way for the same reason. They couldn’t think of anything else to say.
I see you can buy Agenda on Amazon for $141. It’s a ridiculous price, but I briefly thought of buying a copy anyway, for old time’s sake. Then I realized I wouldn’t know what to do with one if I had it—like an incumbent with a second term.
Michael Barone points out that part of the reason why Romney is gaining ground on Obama is as a result of the voter preference in swing-state suburbs. He’s seeing a patterns similar to the 1980 election:
What we may be seeing, as we drink from the fire hose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow motion 1980. The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points. That suggests that since the Oct. 3 debate Republicans have been consistently more motivated to vote than at least temporarily disheartened Democrats.
Karl Rove outlines diagnoses the state of the campaign. The good news is that Romney’s momentum is building and the Obama campaign is becoming increasingly desperate.
Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics.com average of polls showed Mr. Romney with 48% support to President Barack Obama’s 47.1%. On the eve of the Denver debate, Mr. Romney had 46% and Mr. Obama 49.1%.
More revealing, in the past week’s 40 national surveys, Mr. Romney was at or above 50% in 11, with Mr. Obama at or above 50% in one. Mr. Romney leads 48.9% to 46.7% in an average of these surveys. At this same point in 2004, President George W. Bush led Sen. John Kerry in this composite average, 48.9% to 45.8%…
This race will be close, depending on a few states. The good news for Mr. Romney is that the ones he needs are breaking his way. He leads in most recent polls in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
That puts the former Massachusetts governor at 263 in the Electoral College with Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the great prize, Ohio, still up for grabs. In those states, Mr. Obama has at best a thin edge, while Mr. Romney has momentum, a stronger argument, and time to grab the seven additional electoral votes he needs.
An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.
The Des Moines Register writes about a visit by Mitt Romney. They’re assessment? “This must be what momentum looks like.”
National Review points to an interesting trend within the Obama campaign: talk of the president winning without Ohio. Hmmmm.
According to a Suffolk University poll released today, Ohio is tied with each candidate garnering 47% support. If you include those voters who are “leaning” towards one candidate or another, the number improves for Romney: 48% to 47.2%. What we may be seeing is that Obama is hitting a ceiling of (ironically) about 47%.
If you factor in the party affiliation as a “weight” in the poll, you also see encouraging signs. Even though the Democrats are ahead on the polling sample (by +4), they’re still tied. What that means is that independents are breaking sharply for Romney.
(Here’s some context: 2008, Democrats has a +8 in voting turnout, and in 2004, Republicans had a +4. Thus, the +4 Democratic advantage in this poll may even be in the high side…and Romney is still ahead.)
The biggest single change in our Ohio ground game is changing from phones to doorknobs,” Mr. Bennett said. “People screen calls or the calls go into answering machines — not the same as talking to a voter.”
In Virginia, another key state Mr. Obama captured four years ago, volunteers have rapped on 11 times as many doors as they did in all of 2008, the RNC said.
Thousands of coal miners, along with their families and friends heard the mountain top message, and agreed to “take their fight to the ballot box” on Nov. 6, during the Rally in Support of Coal Jobs Sunday at Poplar Gap Park near Grundy, Va. Matt Romney, Susan Allen and her son, Forrest Allen, and several more spoke before Charlie Daniels rocked the mountain.