Michael Barone points out that part of the reason why Romney is gaining ground on Obama is as a result of the voter preference in swing-state suburbs. He’s seeing a patterns similar to the 1980 election:
What we may be seeing, as we drink from the fire hose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow motion 1980. The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points. That suggests that since the Oct. 3 debate Republicans have been consistently more motivated to vote than at least temporarily disheartened Democrats.
Karl Rove outlines diagnoses the state of the campaign. The good news is that Romney’s momentum is building and the Obama campaign is becoming increasingly desperate.
Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics.com average of polls showed Mr. Romney with 48% support to President Barack Obama’s 47.1%. On the eve of the Denver debate, Mr. Romney had 46% and Mr. Obama 49.1%.
More revealing, in the past week’s 40 national surveys, Mr. Romney was at or above 50% in 11, with Mr. Obama at or above 50% in one. Mr. Romney leads 48.9% to 46.7% in an average of these surveys. At this same point in 2004, President George W. Bush led Sen. John Kerry in this composite average, 48.9% to 45.8%…
This race will be close, depending on a few states. The good news for Mr. Romney is that the ones he needs are breaking his way. He leads in most recent polls in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
That puts the former Massachusetts governor at 263 in the Electoral College with Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the great prize, Ohio, still up for grabs. In those states, Mr. Obama has at best a thin edge, while Mr. Romney has momentum, a stronger argument, and time to grab the seven additional electoral votes he needs.
An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.
The Des Moines Register writes about a visit by Mitt Romney. They’re assessment? “This must be what momentum looks like.”