Ohio Poll: Romney and Obama are tied at 47%

According to a Suffolk University poll released today, Ohio is tied with each candidate garnering 47% support.  If you include those voters who are “leaning” towards one candidate or another, the number improves for Romney: 48% to 47.2%.  What we may be seeing is that Obama is hitting a ceiling of (ironically) about 47%.

If you factor in the party affiliation as a “weight” in the poll, you also see encouraging signs.  Even though the Democrats are ahead on the polling sample (by +4), they’re still tied.  What that means is that independents are breaking sharply for Romney.

(Here’s some context: 2008, Democrats has a +8 in voting turnout, and in 2004, Republicans had a +4.  Thus, the +4 Democratic advantage in this poll may even be in the high side…and Romney is still ahead.)