Last week, Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos took criticism for saying Mr. Romney had a lock on Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, worth a collective 57 electoral votes. Today, that is orthodoxy. The New York Times‘ Nate Silver, who still points to an Obama win, has Florida, Virginia and North Carolina in the Romney column as well as Colorado’s nine electoral votes, which many analysts see as beyond Mr. Obama’s reach.
Adding up these states puts Mr. Romney’s base at 257 electoral votes, a mere 13 from victory. This was considered impossible a few weeks ago. From that substantial position, the Republican could win by taking Ohio (18 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20). Even if he lost all three of these large states, he still would end up on top by taking Wisconsin (10) and one other small swing state from among New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6).
EDITORIAL: Romney’s electoral insurgency
Posted on October 22, 2012 ·