Current polling analysis

In his recent analysis of the campaign polls, Keith backer from the www.battlegroundwatch.com blog provides a very detailed, and informative breakdown of the status of the race.

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I won’t rehash a lot of what he provides in his post, which are always informative, but I will say a few things jumped out to me. First, it appears as though some of the major media outlets are continuing to oversampled Democrats. In a recent poll commissioned by the Washington Post, and ABC news, it shows that Obama was leading Romney by 5 percentage points. This seems strange, given the current trajectory of the daily tracking polls from the Gallup organization, and Rasmussen reports. (In both of those polls, Romney is leading Obama by 2%.). Keith writes:

The party identification in the survey is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 33). This compares to 2008 when party ID was D +7 (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29) and 2004 when party ID split evenly (Dem 37, Rep 37, Ind 26). Making matters even worse, in their poll just over two weeks ago that survey had a party ID of D +3 (Dem 33, Rep 30, Ind 33).

Overall, this would be extremely unusual for Pres. Obama to really have that type of a lead. First, independence throughout all polls (including this one) are showing a distinct lean towards Romney. Also, even Republicans are starting to edge out Democrats in enthusiasm. I highly doubt that ABC News and the Washington Post are purposefully doing this, however, it does show that in the modern era (for whatever reason) polling seems to be sporadic, and inexact.