Romney landslide? Maybe it’s not so far fetched

According to an interesting piece put out by the American Enterprise Institute, as it analyzes another piece by Michael Barone, an interesting trend has developed over the past several election cycles.  It used to be that presidential elections returns and House votes were divergent.

In the middle 1990s, that changed. The Democratic percentage of the vote for president and for the House of Representatives have differed by no more than 1 percent starting in 1996.

In addition, the percentages for the two parties in the popular vote for the House in the last three off-year elections have been almost exactly the same as the percentages for the parties in the vote for president two years later.

In 1998, the popular vote for the House was 49 percent to 48 percent Republican. In 2000, the popular vote for president was 48 percent to 48 percent Democratic.

In 2002, the popular vote for the House was 51 percent to 46 percent Republican. In 2004, the popular vote for president was 51 percent to 48 percent Republican.

In 2006, the popular vote for the House was 53 percent to 45 percent Democratic. In 2008, the popular vote for president was 53 percent to 46 percent Democratic.

What this trend shows is that Barack Obama is in serious trouble. The Gallup poll, among others, is reflecting this same trajectory. AEI goes on to say:

While I agree that such an outcome has seemed unlikely, recent polling suggests it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Gallup’s likely voter track has had Romney at or above 50% for three days in a row now (In fact, he’s been trending upwards each of those days, and sits at 52% today). The president, meanwhile, has hovered at about 46%—exactly what Barone’s theory would predict.

That leaves about 4% undecided. We know that about 1% will vote 3rd party, and that—historically speaking—2/3 of the remainder will break for Romney. If that happens, we’ll see Romney take 52% and Obama capture 47%, with about 1% for 3rd party candidates.

That would be a 12-point swing, which would produce about the map published above. Again, individual states may differ, but if Gallup’s numbers are right, we can expect to see Romney capture 300 electoral votes—or more.

 

 

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney.

Time: The electoral map is looking better and better for Gov. Romney

Keith Backer, as usual, nails a good lead from Time magazine’s Mark Halperin.  In it, Mr. Halperin discusses how the campaign is truly shifting and the acceleration of states  like Virginia and Florida towards the Romney camp is scaring Obama supporters (North Carolina isn’t really close.  Obama maintains a presence there only because it’d be embarrassing NOT to have one).

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

This doesn’t mean Romney has the upper hand right now. But it is no longer at all implausible that he could take the three Southern battlegrounds and Ohio. If he does that, he sure as heck would have the upper hand. And that leaves at least some Democrats with the shakes.

This comes hot on the heals of another poll coming out of New Hampshire showing that Obama and Romney are tied at 47% each.  Remember, incumbents are consistently below the 50% mark going into an election, it does not bode well for his reelection changes.  According to an article from the Wall Street Journal posted earlier this month, Karl Rove explains why:

In the past 30 days, there were 91 national polls (including each Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking survey). Mr. Obama was at or above the magic number of 50% in just 20. His average was 47.9%. Mr. Romney’s was 45.5%.

There were 40 national polls over the same period in 2004. President George W. Bush was 50% or higher in 18. His average was 49%; Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was at 43.8%. An Oct. 4, 2004, story in the New York Times declared the Bush/Kerry race “a dead heat” and asked “whether Mr. Bush can regain the advantage.”

Mr. Bush was hitting the vital 50% mark in almost half the polls (unlike Mr. Obama) and had a lead over Mr. Kerry twice as large as the one Mr. Obama now holds over Mr. Romney. So why was the 2004 race “a dead heat” while many commentators today say Mr. Obama is the clear favorite.  The reality is that 2012 is a horse race and will remain so. An incumbent below 50% is in grave danger. On Election Day he’ll usually receive less than his final poll number. That’s because his detractors are more likely to turn out, and undecideds are more resistant to voting for him.

USA Today/Gallup swing state poll: Romney up 5%

According to a poll released today by USA Today/Gallup, Romney has pulled ahead by an astonishing 5%. This is encouraging, however what is more impressive is how that lead was generated. Looking within the internal structure of the pole, women favor Romney at an equal level to Pres. Obama. Usually, women favor Democrats by as much as 10% to 12%, so having an even split amongst the female going block is remarkable.

“In every poll, we’ve seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney” since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. “Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them.”

While Lake believes Obama retains an edge among women voters, the changed views of Romney could be “a precursor to movement” to the Republican candidate, she says. “It opens them up to take a second look, and that’s the danger for Obama.”

Female voters are a critical part of the president’s coalition. Four years ago, he led Republican rival John McCain by a single point among men, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places. The decisive Democratic margin of victory came from women, who supported Obama by 13 points.

Now, the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Romney leading Obama 51%-46% among likely voters in the swing states. Men who are likely voters back him 54%-42%. The states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Current polling analysis

In his recent analysis of the campaign polls, Keith backer from the www.battlegroundwatch.com blog provides a very detailed, and informative breakdown of the status of the race.

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I won’t rehash a lot of what he provides in his post, which are always informative, but I will say a few things jumped out to me. First, it appears as though some of the major media outlets are continuing to oversampled Democrats. In a recent poll commissioned by the Washington Post, and ABC news, it shows that Obama was leading Romney by 5 percentage points. This seems strange, given the current trajectory of the daily tracking polls from the Gallup organization, and Rasmussen reports. (In both of those polls, Romney is leading Obama by 2%.). Keith writes:

The party identification in the survey is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 33). This compares to 2008 when party ID was D +7 (Dem 39, Rep 32, Ind 29) and 2004 when party ID split evenly (Dem 37, Rep 37, Ind 26). Making matters even worse, in their poll just over two weeks ago that survey had a party ID of D +3 (Dem 33, Rep 30, Ind 33).

Overall, this would be extremely unusual for Pres. Obama to really have that type of a lead. First, independence throughout all polls (including this one) are showing a distinct lean towards Romney. Also, even Republicans are starting to edge out Democrats in enthusiasm. I highly doubt that ABC News and the Washington Post are purposefully doing this, however, it does show that in the modern era (for whatever reason) polling seems to be sporadic, and inexact.

Rove: The Dividends of Romney’s Debate Victory

Rove: The Dividends of Romney’s Debate Victory – WSJ.com:

Republicans are also getting the better of Mr. Obama in early voting. In 2008, Democrats made up 51% of the North Carolina early vote while Republicans were 30%. This year, Republicans have cast 54% of the ballots returned so far, Democrats only 28%, according to state data compiled by George Mason University’s Michael McDonald for his United States Election Project.

Source: www.karlrove.com

In Florida, 46% of absentee ballots returned by September’s end came from Republicans (compared with 37% in 2008) while just 38% came from Democrats (they were 46% of the total in 2008). More Republicans have requested absentee ballots in Colorado, a state where Democrats edged out Republicans in early voting last time.

Republicans have also made up ground in Ohio. For example, in 2008 Democrats requested 5% more absentee ballots in Franklin County (Columbus), 4% more in Greene County (Xenia), and 11% more in Wood County (Bowling Green). This election, Republicans have more ballot requests than Democrats in these counties by 5%, 19% and 1% respectively.

Breaking: Suffolk stops polling in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida — Predicts wins for Romney

Keith Backer over at Battleground Watch caught this encouraging snippet from Fox News:

Looks like Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina are “off the market” as it were. Suffolk Polling is reallocating their resources out of those states as they are likely solidly in Romney’s column:

In places like North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, we’ve already painted those red.  We’re not polling any of those states again.  We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

Pew Research: Romney leads by 4%

Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Interesting item to note in this poll: the Republican sample is +2.5% over the Democratic sample.  This is in keeping with Rasmussen’s reports, thus, is an encouraging sign about the trajectory of the race.

Party affiliation – GOP gaining

Summary of Party Affiliation – Rasmussen Reports™.

 

Sep 36.8% 34.2% 29.0% 2.6% 2.6%
Aug 37.6% 33.3% 29.2% 4.3%
Jul 34.9% 34.0% 31.1% 0.9%
Jun 35.4% 34.0% 30.5% 1.4% 1.8%
May 35.7% 33.8% 30.5% 1.9%
Apr 35.1% 33.1% 31.8% 2.0%
Mar 36.4% 33.4% 30.2% 3.0% 3.3%
Feb 36.0% 32.4% 31.6% 3.6%
Jan 35.9% 32.5% 31.6% 3.4%

What the debate did – Right Turn – The Washington Post

What the debate did – Right Turn – The Washington Post.

Jennifer Rubin argues that 8 indicators from the Romney/Obama debate last week show that perhaps Romney should be considered a favorite at this point.  Looking through her list, the one that stands out to me the most is the “inevitability” point:

The polls have moved substantially, thereby blowing up the notion that Obama had this in the bag. Gallup tells us: “Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.”