The Obama Ground Game Myth « Commentary Magazine

As Josh Jordan explains in National Review, both Gallup and Rasmussen agree that the partisan split between Republicans and Democrats has changed markedly since 2008. Whereas four years ago the Democrats had a seven-point advantage, this fall that has become a 1 or 2 point Republican edge.

Under those circumstances, it’s difficult to take seriously those polls like the Investors Business Daily/TIPP tracking poll that shows Obama up by one point, since its sample has seven percent more Democrats than Republicans. But even there, there is little to encourage the president’s supporters since his numbers have been declining in that poll over the past week. You have to believe along with Obama staffer Jim Messina that their ground game that will produce an electorate that is disproportionately Democratic with more minority and young voters than even in 2008 to think such a result is even possible.

This makes the operative question this week not so much whether which polls are accurate as it is how even with a field office advantage can the Democrats possibly manufacture the sort of partisan turnout advantage that could re-elect Obama? In a year when independents are flocking to Romney, there simply may not be enough Democrats, youth or minority voters to offset the fact the GOP base will turn out in numbers that will far eclipse their totals in 2008. Discussion about a ground game may be simply an attempt to distract us from the fact that the president’s campaign is betting everything on an organizational plan that can’t overcome the way the electorate has changed over the course of the Obama presidency.

via The Obama Ground Game Myth « Commentary Magazine.

Time For Real Change: “Romney Has A Clearer Vision For A Modern Economy”

Time For Real Change: “Romney Has A Clearer Vision For A Modern Economy”.

Opinion: Obamas fuzzy Ohio early vote math – Adrian Gray – POLITICO.com

Opinion: Obamas fuzzy Ohio early vote math – Adrian Gray – POLITICO.com.

Worried about Ohio? Don’t be (tie goes to the challenger)

Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Interesting polling numbers from Ohio – Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com.

State of the race: Trajectory is bending towards Romney (thank heavens)

Michael Barone points out that part of the reason why Romney is gaining ground on Obama is as a result of the voter preference in swing-state suburbs.  He’s seeing a patterns similar to the 1980 election:

What we may be seeing, as we drink from the fire hose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow motion 1980.  The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by 5 to 7 points.  That suggests that since the Oct. 3 debate Republicans have been consistently more motivated to vote than at least temporarily disheartened Democrats.

 Karl Rove outlines diagnoses the state of the campaign.  The good news is that Romney’s momentum is building and the Obama campaign is becoming increasingly desperate.

Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics.com average of polls showed Mr. Romney with 48% support to President Barack Obama’s 47.1%. On the eve of the Denver debate, Mr. Romney had 46% and Mr. Obama 49.1%.

More revealing, in the past week’s 40 national surveys, Mr. Romney was at or above 50% in 11, with Mr. Obama at or above 50% in one. Mr. Romney leads 48.9% to 46.7% in an average of these surveys. At this same point in 2004, President George W. Bush led Sen. John Kerry in this composite average, 48.9% to 45.8%…

This race will be close, depending on a few states. The good news for Mr. Romney is that the ones he needs are breaking his way. He leads in most recent polls in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.

That puts the former Massachusetts governor at 263 in the Electoral College with Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the great prize, Ohio, still up for grabs. In those states, Mr. Obama has at best a thin edge, while Mr. Romney has momentum, a stronger argument, and time to grab the seven additional electoral votes he needs.

An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.

The Des Moines Register writes about a visit by Mitt Romney.  They’re assessment?  “This must be what momentum looks like.”

 

Video: Colorado Rally at Red Rocks Amphitheatre

GOP continue to gain ground in Clark Co. (Nevada)…which bodes well

Republicans Continue to Make Waves in Clark County, Nevada Early Voting « Battleground Watch.

 

Obama-Romney Tied at 48 in Ohio — Rasmussen « Battleground Watch

Obama-Romney Tied at 48 in Ohio — Rasmussen « Battleground Watch.

Obama and Ohio

National Review points to an interesting trend within the Obama campaign: talk of the president winning without Ohio.  Hmmmm.

Ohio Poll: Romney and Obama are tied at 47%

According to a Suffolk University poll released today, Ohio is tied with each candidate garnering 47% support.  If you include those voters who are “leaning” towards one candidate or another, the number improves for Romney: 48% to 47.2%.  What we may be seeing is that Obama is hitting a ceiling of (ironically) about 47%.

If you factor in the party affiliation as a “weight” in the poll, you also see encouraging signs.  Even though the Democrats are ahead on the polling sample (by +4), they’re still tied.  What that means is that independents are breaking sharply for Romney.

(Here’s some context: 2008, Democrats has a +8 in voting turnout, and in 2004, Republicans had a +4.  Thus, the +4 Democratic advantage in this poll may even be in the high side…and Romney is still ahead.)