407,000 votes in four key states made the difference for Obama

Jim Geraghty from the National Review takes a closer look at the numbers and uncovers some surprising statistics.  According to his analysis, the four key swing states which would have delivered victory for Team Romney were agonizingly close:

Florida: 73,858

Ohio: 103,481

Virginia: 115,910

Colorado: 113,099

Those four states, with a collective margin of, 406,348 for Obama, add up to 69 electoral votes. Had Romney won 407,000 or so additional votes in the right proportion in those states, he would have 275 electoral votes.

This shows in no uncertain terms, that this election was extremely close, and that President Obama appears to NOT have quite the mandate he thinks he has.  (Hat tip to Battleground Watch for the lead.)

Fighting in blue states is a good sign for Romney – Right Turn – The Washington Post

Fighting in blue states is a good sign for Romney – Right Turn – The Washington Post.

Romney’s momentum accelerating

James Pethokoukis writes that Mitt Romney may be cruising to a “decisive victory” on Election Day. Fox News also has had a few videos of the latest take on the race out of Ohio.

Opinion: Obamas fuzzy Ohio early vote math – Adrian Gray – POLITICO.com

Opinion: Obamas fuzzy Ohio early vote math – Adrian Gray – POLITICO.com.

Worried about Ohio? Don’t be (tie goes to the challenger)

Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: Interesting polling numbers from Ohio – Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com.

Obama-Romney Tied at 48 in Ohio — Rasmussen « Battleground Watch

Obama-Romney Tied at 48 in Ohio — Rasmussen « Battleground Watch.

Obama and Ohio

National Review points to an interesting trend within the Obama campaign: talk of the president winning without Ohio.  Hmmmm.

Ohio Poll: Romney and Obama are tied at 47%

According to a Suffolk University poll released today, Ohio is tied with each candidate garnering 47% support.  If you include those voters who are “leaning” towards one candidate or another, the number improves for Romney: 48% to 47.2%.  What we may be seeing is that Obama is hitting a ceiling of (ironically) about 47%.

If you factor in the party affiliation as a “weight” in the poll, you also see encouraging signs.  Even though the Democrats are ahead on the polling sample (by +4), they’re still tied.  What that means is that independents are breaking sharply for Romney.

(Here’s some context: 2008, Democrats has a +8 in voting turnout, and in 2004, Republicans had a +4.  Thus, the +4 Democratic advantage in this poll may even be in the high side…and Romney is still ahead.)

Ohio shows +5% for Obama? Hmmm…

Obama +5 in Ohio with a Party ID of D +9 — CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac « Battleground Watch.

Keith Backer writes:
Independents’ support for Romney up 7% (up 1% from last month)
GOP is more enthusiastic: 52% to 40%
Men support Romney over Obama is steady at about +7%
Romney has shrunk Obama’s advantage in the women vote from 25% to 15%
Youth vote for Obama has shrunk from +35% for Obama to +15%
Romney has flipped the senior support numbers: Obama was +1%, now Romney is up +7%

The problem with this poll which shows an Obama lead by 5%, is that the spread between the party affiliation is heavily skewed towards the Democrats:
D = 35%
R = 26%
I = 34%

Keith Backer goes onto write:

They threw me off last week when they put out some fairly sampled polls, but here we are right back to last month’s monstrosity of an Ohio poll over-sampling Democrats by 9%, higher than the 8% margin they enjoyed in 2008. Party ID is D+9 (Dem 25, Rep 26, Ind 30) and R+5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25)…This is for a state that less than 12-months ago went to the polls in a very pro-Union turnout and also voted to REPEAL Obamacare by a margin of 66 to 34.

GOP coming out in droves to vote early in Ohio

A story out of Columbus Ohio reports that the Romney campaign has made vast improvements to take advantage of the early voting option in Ohio. In the last election, John McCain prevailed on the actual Election Day in terms of the in person voting that took place at polling locations. He subsequently lost the state, however, because Barack Obama had taken advantage of the early voting and built up a significant lead. According to the story, it’s not going to be anything like 2008 for the president:

Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the state’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.

“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,” he said. “What’s this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.”

The analysis assumes undeclared voters will be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.

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