407,000 votes in four key states made the difference for Obama

Jim Geraghty from the National Review takes a closer look at the numbers and uncovers some surprising statistics.  According to his analysis, the four key swing states which would have delivered victory for Team Romney were agonizingly close:

Florida: 73,858

Ohio: 103,481

Virginia: 115,910

Colorado: 113,099

Those four states, with a collective margin of, 406,348 for Obama, add up to 69 electoral votes. Had Romney won 407,000 or so additional votes in the right proportion in those states, he would have 275 electoral votes.

This shows in no uncertain terms, that this election was extremely close, and that President Obama appears to NOT have quite the mandate he thinks he has.  (Hat tip to Battleground Watch for the lead.)

Video: Colorado Rally at Red Rocks Amphitheatre

Colorado may hold the key to a Romney victory

Following closely on Ohio’s heals is what many would argue is the second-most important state for the election.  Should Romney (or Obama for that matter) prevail in Ohio, then all eyes would likely turn towards Colorado.  (Remember, the electoral math shows two likely routes to victory for Romney: either (1) win Ohio and one other state, OR (2) lose Ohio and sweep New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.) .

Colorado Swings Towards Romney - Salena Zito - Page 1

Right now, the indication is that Romney is leading in many of these states, so while it’s a small margin for error, it is certainly within reach.  Colorado has been stubborn to the Obama campaign: even when polls (many would argue were “skewed”) were trending towards Obama before his disastrous debate performance, Colorado maintained a steady support level for Romney.  It seems like that trend is likely to continue:

Exactly 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency. And that win may well come down to Colorado – specifically, Jefferson and Arapahoe counties.

Both are at the center of the 7th U.S. Congressional District race between incumbent Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat, and his challenger, Republican Joe Coors.

If businessman Coors has a good election night on Nov. 6, then so will Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, not only in Colorado but likely nationwide.

Colorado is looking like a state that is the national average, perhaps a tick or two rightward, according to Sean Trende, a savvy number-cruncher and Princeton-trained political scientist for the website RealClearPolitics.

“So if Romney is winning Colorado, it probably means he is headed for a decent night,” Trende said of the relatively new electoral trend of a Western state signaling a presidential win.

If Romney wins here comfortably, that probably means a national win on the scale of George Bush in 2004, or even Obama in 2008, Trende said.

Right now, he said, Colorado’s numbers look pretty good for Romney: “We have him up a half-point in the RCP Average, with the president down to about 47 percent of the vote. That’s not a great position for the president to be in.”

via Colorado Swings Towards Romney – Salena Zito – Page 1.

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